Our calls, scored in public
Every whale-bias reversal we detect is automatically scored against what the stock actually did afterwards. No cherry-picking, no edits — the pipeline writes this page, not us.
Early data — scoring started Jun 12. 17 reversals tracked, 12 scored so far. Judge the methodology now, the numbers once the sample grows past 20.
Hit rate — next day
50%
6/12 scored · avg move 0.2%
Hit rate — 5 sessions
—
0/0 scored · avg move —
Reversals tracked
17
since Jun 12
| Date | Ticker | Reversal | Next day | 5 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12 | $EWJ | bearish → bullish | -0.1% ✗ | pending |
| Jun 12 | $GT | bearish → bullish | +1.8% ✓ | pending |
| Jun 12 | $EWZ | bearish → bullish | +0.2% ✓ | pending |
| Jun 12 | $DVN | bearish → bullish | -0.3% ✗ | pending |
| Jun 12 | $EQX | bearish → bullish | -0.2% ✗ | pending |
| Jun 12 | $TNA | bullish → bearish | -0.9% ✓ | pending |
| Jun 12 | $CRWV | bearish → bullish | -3.9% ✗ | pending |
| Jun 12 | $TNA | bearish → bullish | -1.1% ✗ | pending |
| Jun 12 | $ROL | bearish → bullish | +0.2% ✓ | pending |
| Jun 12 | $SOXX | bearish → bullish | +0.6% ✓ | pending |
| Jun 12 | $SMH | bearish → bullish | +2.6% ✓ | pending |
| Jun 12 | $RRC | bullish → bearish | +3.6% ✗ | pending |
Methodology
- A reversalfires when a ticker's whale options flow (contracts with ≥$100k traded notional on the day) crosses from call-dominant to put-dominant or vice versa, with hysteresis so noise around 50/50 never counts.
- The underlying price is recorded at detection time. A reversal is a hitif the stock moved in the reversal's direction.
- “Next day” is measured at the first scan ≥24 hours later; “5 sessions” ≈ 7 calendar days. Returns are the underlying stock's, not an options position — no hypothetical P&L.
- Every detected reversal is scored. None are removed.
Informational only — not financial advice. Past detection performance does not guarantee future results.